← Explore · Market 3595817

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

2.3% implied · bid 2.1¢ · ask 2.4¢

The market prices this at 1.9%, down 20.3pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability1.9%

Bid / ask / mid2.1¢ / 2.4¢ / 2.3¢

Spread0.3¢ (13.3%)

Change 24h-20.25pt

Change 7d+1.30pt

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$100,901

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$143 / $208

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score48.7 / 100

RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.18

RSI (14, hourly)21.0

Realized vol 7d6.22pt

Change 1h-2.45pt

Resolves in 0d 15h.

Time to resolve0d 15h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%