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← Explore · Market 3595819

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

25.5% implied · bid 24.9¢ · ask 26.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 25.9%, up 1.2pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.

Implied probability25.9%
Bid / ask / mid24.9¢ / 26.1¢ / 25.5¢
Spread1.2¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h+1.20pt
Change 7d+25.60pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$53,804
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$475 / $335
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score44.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.81
RSI (14, hourly)71.0
Realized vol 7d2.08pt
Change 1h-1.15pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 15h.

Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth