a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 3595820

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

5.3% implied · bid 4.8¢ · ask 5.8¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 6.0%, down 4.2pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid4.8¢ / 5.8¢ / 5.3¢
Spread1.0¢ (18.9%)
Change 24h-4.15pt
Change 7d+4.95pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$50,744
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$861 / $140
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.14
RSI (14, hourly)57.6
Realized vol 7d1.31pt
Change 1h-0.55pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 15h.

Time to resolve0d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth