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Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?

55.5% implied · bid 55.0¢ · ask 56.0¢

The market prices this at 48.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability48.0%

Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 56.0¢ / 55.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.8%)

Change 24h-3.50pt

Change 7d+17.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,446

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$272 / $242

Imbalance16% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.3 / 100

RSI 81 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.28

RSI (14, hourly)80.8

Realized vol 7d8.15pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 40d 4h.

Time to resolve40d 4h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%