← Explore · Market 3669895
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?
36.0% implied · bid 33.0¢ · ask 39.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.0%, down 10.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.
Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid33.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 36.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (16.7%)
Change 24h-10.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$83 / $20
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 15 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.42
RSI (14, hourly)15.2
Realized vol 7d5.01pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%