← Explore · Market 3688261

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

15.5% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 16.0¢

The market prices this at 15.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%

Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)

Change 24h-4.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6,537

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$796 / $696

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.7 / 100

RSI 21 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.18

RSI (14, hourly)21.4

Realized vol 7d0.77pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 3d 15h.

Time to resolve3d 15h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%