← Explore · Market 3688264
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
20.5% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 21.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.9%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,997
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,313 / $515
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.12
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%