← Explore · Market 3688265
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
19.5% implied · bid 19.0¢ · ask 20.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 19.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.1%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,285
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,104 / $476
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.53
RSI (14, hourly)71.4
Realized vol 7d0.69pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3d 15h.
Time to resolve3d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%