← Explore · Market 3688266

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?

14.5% implied · bid 14.0¢ · ask 15.0¢

The market prices this at 15.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%

Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)

Change 24h+5.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,456

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,066 / $376

Imbalance9% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.7 / 100

RSI 78 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.05

RSI (14, hourly)77.8

Realized vol 7d0.76pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 3d 15h.

Time to resolve3d 15h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%