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← Explore · Market 3700193

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?

99.6% implied · bid 99.5¢ · ask 99.6¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 99.5%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability99.5%
Bid / ask / mid99.5¢ / 99.6¢ / 99.6¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+0.95pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$127,713
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$17,412 / $137,617
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)15
Liquidity score99.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 73 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.88
RSI (14, hourly)73.3
Realized vol 7d1.94pt
Change 1h+0.25pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 23h.

Time to resolve0d 23h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth