a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 3700194

US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?

92.5% implied · bid 92.0¢ · ask 93.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 93.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid92.0¢ / 93.0¢ / 92.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$200,223
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$121,774 / $270,691
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)13
Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.05
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d1.53pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 6d 23h.

Time to resolve6d 23h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth