← Explore · Market 3701629
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability7.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23,899
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,712 / $1,904
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score46.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.40
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.62pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 22d 2h.
Time to resolve22d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%