← Explore · Market 3701662
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 14.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,165
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,296 / $1,186
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.79
RSI (14, hourly)18.2
Realized vol 7d2.11pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 37d 2h.
Time to resolve37d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%