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← Explore · Market 3702025

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?

6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 6.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$62,217
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15,581 / $4,652
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score55.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 9 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.12
RSI (14, hourly)9.1
Realized vol 7d0.73pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 14d 0h.

Time to resolve14d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth