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← Explore · Market 3702042

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?

12.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 13.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 13.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 12.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 93/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 41% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$63,367
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$94,942 / $1,318
Imbalance41% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score93.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 11 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.58
RSI (14, hourly)11.1
Realized vol 7d0.74pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 21d 0h.

Time to resolve21d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth