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← Explore · Market 3702045

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

20.5% implied · bid 20.0¢ · ask 21.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 20.0%, down 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid20.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.9%)
Change 24h-5.00pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$36,364
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,756 / $4,064
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score49.4 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.65
RSI (14, hourly)21.4
Realized vol 7d1.02pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 28d 3h.

Time to resolve28d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth