← Explore · Market 3710806
Will Iran target Jordan by August 31, 2026?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$41,216
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22 / $3
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.12
RSI (14, hourly)55.1
Realized vol 7d3.04pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 19h.
Time to resolve6d 19h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%