← Explore · Market 3710807

Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?

26.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 37.0¢

The market prices this at 20.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 21.0¢ spread.

Implied probability20.0%

Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 37.0¢ / 26.5¢

Spread21.0¢ (79.2%)

Change 24h+0.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$20

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

RSI 52 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.77

RSI (14, hourly)51.9

Realized vol 7d6.45pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 21d 19h.

Time to resolve21d 19h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%