← Explore · Market 3710808

Will Iran target Jordan by September 30, 2026?

37.0% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 65.0¢

The market prices this at 21.0%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 56.0¢ spread.

Implied probability21.0%

Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 65.0¢ / 37.0¢

Spread56.0¢ (151.4%)

Change 24h+2.50pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$0

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score0.0 / 100

RSI 75 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.77

RSI (14, hourly)75.0

Realized vol 7d4.16pt

Change 1h-0.50pt

Resolves in 36d 19h.

Time to resolve36d 19h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%