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Will Les Républicains hold 117-120 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

9.3% implied · bid 5.5¢ · ask 13.0¢

The market prices this at 7.0%, up 4.7pt over 24h, on a 7.5¢ spread.

Implied probability7.0%

Bid / ask / mid5.5¢ / 13.0¢ / 9.3¢

Spread7.5¢ (81.1%)

Change 24h+4.65pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 13/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$55

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6 / $3

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score12.5 / 100

RSI 93 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.51

RSI (14, hourly)93.0

Realized vol 7d4.47pt

Change 1h+0.20pt

Resolves in 67d 21h.

Time to resolve67d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%