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← Explore · Market 3728838

Will Les Républicains hold 121-124 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

23.0% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 25.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 21.0%, down 5.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.

Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 25.0¢ / 23.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (17.4%)
Change 24h-5.50pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,231
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$68 / $116
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d4.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 67d 21h.

Time to resolve67d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth