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Will Les Républicains hold 125-128 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

26.2% implied · bid 24.4¢ · ask 27.9¢

The market prices this at 29.4%, up 8.2pt over 24h, on a 3.5¢ spread.

Implied probability29.4%

Bid / ask / mid24.4¢ / 27.9¢ / 26.2¢

Spread3.5¢ (13.4%)

Change 24h+8.15pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,792

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$128 / $237

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score32.7 / 100

RSI 44 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.12

RSI (14, hourly)44.0

Realized vol 7d4.53pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 67d 21h.

Time to resolve67d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%