← Explore · Market 3728841

Will Les Républicains hold 129-132 French Senate seats after the 2026 election?

19.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 23.0¢

The market prices this at 19.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.

Implied probability19.0%

Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 23.0¢ / 19.5¢

Spread7.0¢ (35.9%)

Change 24h+1.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,109

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$18 / $12

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score15.0 / 100

RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.14

RSI (14, hourly)46.9

Realized vol 7d2.97pt

Change 1h+2.00pt

Resolves in 67d 21h.

Time to resolve67d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%