← Explore · Market 3734204
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be less than 1 hour?
2.8% implied · bid 0.3¢ · ask 5.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.9%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 4.9¢ spread.
Implied probability4.9%
Bid / ask / mid0.3¢ / 5.2¢ / 2.8¢
Spread4.9¢ (178.2%)
Change 24h+0.25pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 26/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$509
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $121
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.21
RSI (14, hourly)26.0
Realized vol 7d5.79pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%