← Explore · Market 3734205
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?
1.1% implied · bid 0.2¢ · ask 2.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid0.2¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.1¢
Spread1.8¢ (163.6%)
Change 24h+0.60pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2 / $3
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.05
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d4.36pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%