← Explore · Market 3734207
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?
89.5% implied · bid 89.0¢ · ask 90.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 89.0%, up 5.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability89.0%
Bid / ask / mid89.0¢ / 90.0¢ / 89.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+5.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,304
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,642 / $2,264
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.69
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d6.61pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 22h.
Time to resolve6d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%