← Explore · Market 3734208

Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be at least 12 hours?

7.8% implied · bid 5.6¢ · ask 9.9¢

The market prices this at 8.0%, up 1.8pt over 24h, on a 4.3¢ spread.

Implied probability8.0%

Bid / ask / mid5.6¢ / 9.9¢ / 7.8¢

Spread4.3¢ (55.5%)

Change 24h+1.75pt

Change 7dn/a

Thin (score 29/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$65

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$61 / $72

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score28.6 / 100

RSI 80 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.50

RSI (14, hourly)80.2

Realized vol 7d4.20pt

Change 1h-0.15pt

Resolves in 6d 22h.

Time to resolve6d 22h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%