← Explore · Market 3748407
Will AfD win less than 39% of all valid second votes?
7.0% implied · bid 5.0¢ · ask 9.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 7.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (57.1%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$157
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$58 / $89
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.04
RSI (14, hourly)43.8
Realized vol 7d3.61pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 22h.
Time to resolve12d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%