← Explore · Market 3748408
Will AfD win between 39% and 42% of all valid second votes?
34.5% implied · bid 33.0¢ · ask 36.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability36.0%
Bid / ask / mid33.0¢ / 36.0¢ / 34.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$15
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$366 / $1,185
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 32 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.39
RSI (14, hourly)31.6
Realized vol 7d2.84pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 22h.
Time to resolve12d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%