← Explore · Market 3748409
Will AfD win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes?
40.5% implied · bid 39.0¢ · ask 42.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 39.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability39.0%
Bid / ask / mid39.0¢ / 42.0¢ / 40.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$752
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,195 / $1,482
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 46 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.64
RSI (14, hourly)46.4
Realized vol 7d3.22pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 22h.
Time to resolve12d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%