← Explore · Market 3748410
Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?
23.5% implied · bid 22.0¢ · ask 25.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 23.0%, up 10.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability23.0%
Bid / ask / mid22.0¢ / 25.0¢ / 23.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (12.8%)
Change 24h+10.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 22% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,418
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$705 / $787
Imbalance22% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 92 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.04
RSI (14, hourly)91.7
Realized vol 7d2.40pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 22h.
Time to resolve12d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%