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← Explore · Market 3748553

Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?

42.5% implied · bid 42.0¢ · ask 43.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 39.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability39.0%
Bid / ask / mid42.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 42.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.4%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 17% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,698
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,737 / $2,123
Imbalance17% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 87 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.15
RSI (14, hourly)87.5
Realized vol 7d1.53pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 12d 22h.

Time to resolve12d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth