← Explore · Market 3758940
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
3.3% implied · bid 1.9¢ · ask 4.7¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.3%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.
Implied probability3.3%
Bid / ask / mid1.9¢ / 4.7¢ / 3.3¢
Spread2.8¢ (84.8%)
Change 24h-0.70pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$216 / $3,502
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score37.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.69
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.87pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 22d 2h.
Time to resolve22d 2h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%