← Explore · Market 3780236
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
34.5% implied · bid 34.0¢ · ask 35.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 30.0%, down 10.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability30.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 34.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.9%)
Change 24h-10.00pt
Change 7dn/a
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,588
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,059 / $1,857
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 34 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.79
RSI (14, hourly)34.3
Realized vol 7d1.95pt
Change 1h+4.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 1d 14h.
Time to resolve1d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%