← Explore · Market 3780237

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?

42.5% implied · bid 42.0¢ · ask 43.0¢

The market prices this at 43.0%, up 11.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability43.0%

Bid / ask / mid42.0¢ / 43.0¢ / 42.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.4%)

Change 24h+11.00pt

Change 7dn/a

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,909

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,785 / $1,031

Imbalance18% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score47.4 / 100

RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.35

RSI (14, hourly)71.2

Realized vol 7d2.10pt

Change 1h+1.00pt

Resolves in 1d 14h.

Time to resolve1d 14h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%