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← Explore · Market 3780238

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?

16.6% implied · bid 16.4¢ · ask 16.7¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 17.1%, up 7.9pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability17.1%
Bid / ask / mid16.4¢ / 16.7¢ / 16.6¢
Spread0.3¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h+7.90pt
Change 7dn/a

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6,185
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$796 / $360
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.76
RSI (14, hourly)71.2
Realized vol 7d1.54pt
Change 1h-3.90pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 1d 14h.

Time to resolve1d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth