← Explore · Market 559652

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

14.3% implied · bid 14.3¢ · ask 14.4¢

The market prices this at 14.4%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability14.4%

Bid / ask / mid14.3¢ / 14.4¢ / 14.3¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.7%)

Change 24h-0.60pt

Change 7d-1.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 69/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$17,633

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29,269 / $10,344

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score69.3 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.14

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.08pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 804d 23h.

Time to resolve804d 23h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%