← Explore · Market 559652
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
18.9% implied · bid 18.8¢ · ask 19.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.8¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.9¢
Spread0.2¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h+0.35pt
Change 7d-1.75pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 86/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17,355
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$50,079 / $24,419
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score86.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 81 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.53
RSI (14, hourly)81.0
Realized vol 7d0.10pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 850d 22h.
Time to resolve850d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%