← Explore · Market 561229
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
19.9% implied · bid 19.8¢ · ask 19.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.8¢ / 19.9¢ / 19.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-0.20pt
Change 7d-0.60pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 99/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$15,614
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$59,586 / $39,392
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score99.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 27 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.86
RSI (14, hourly)27.3
Realized vol 7d0.05pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 850d 22h.
Time to resolve850d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%