← Explore · Market 561230

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

11.8% implied · bid 11.7¢ · ask 11.8¢

The market prices this at 11.8%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability11.8%

Bid / ask / mid11.7¢ / 11.8¢ / 11.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.9%)

Change 24h-0.10pt

Change 7d-0.50pt

Moderately liquid (score 62/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,103

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,230 / $15,197

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score61.7 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.64

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.03pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 850d 22h.

Time to resolve850d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%