← Explore · Market 561231
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
7.8% implied · bid 7.7¢ · ask 7.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.9%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability7.9%
Bid / ask / mid7.7¢ / 7.9¢ / 7.8¢
Spread0.2¢ (2.6%)
Change 24h+0.30pt
Change 7d+0.95pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,398
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,930 / $8,110
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score58.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.28
RSI (14, hourly)71.4
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 850d 22h.
Time to resolve850d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%