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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

40.3% implied · bid 40.2¢ · ask 40.3¢

The market prices this at 40.1%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability40.1%

Bid / ask / mid40.2¢ / 40.3¢ / 40.3¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)

Change 24h-0.20pt

Change 7d-0.15pt

Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$25,241

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$31,394 / $107,227

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score99.5 / 100

RSI 32 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.18

RSI (14, hourly)31.8

Realized vol 7d0.41pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

Resolves in 850d 21h.

Time to resolve850d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%