← Explore · Market 561975
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
19.8% implied · bid 19.5¢ · ask 20.1¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.9%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability19.9%
Bid / ask / mid19.5¢ / 20.1¢ / 19.8¢
Spread0.6¢ (3.0%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d-3.05pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 73/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,929
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$26,896 / $24,155
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score72.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.37
RSI (14, hourly)38.3
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 804d 23h.
Time to resolve804d 23h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%