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← Explore · Market 561975

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

19.8% implied · bid 19.5¢ · ask 20.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 19.9%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.

Implied probability19.9%
Bid / ask / mid19.5¢ / 20.1¢ / 19.8¢
Spread0.6¢ (3.0%)
Change 24h-0.55pt
Change 7d-3.05pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 73/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$11,929
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$26,896 / $24,155
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score72.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 38 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.37
RSI (14, hourly)38.3
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.75pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 804d 23h.

Time to resolve804d 23h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth