← Explore · Market 561996
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3.1% implied · bid 3.1¢ · ask 3.2¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.1%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability3.1%
Bid / ask / mid3.1¢ / 3.2¢ / 3.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (3.2%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$5,088
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,359 / $3,754
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.82
RSI (14, hourly)20.0
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 850d 21h.
Time to resolve850d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%