← Explore · Market 567621

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

3.8% implied · bid 3.7¢ · ask 3.8¢

The market prices this at 3.7%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability3.7%

Bid / ask / mid3.7¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.7%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-0.10pt

Deep and tight (score 85/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$23,788

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$55,056 / $16,216

Imbalance6% bid

Large trades (>$1k)4

Liquidity score85.1 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.70

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.02pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 127d 22h.

Time to resolve127d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%