← Explore · Market 567621

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4.0% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 4.1¢

The market prices this at 4.0%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.0%

Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 4.1¢ / 4.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.5%)

Change 24h-0.10pt

Change 7d+0.40pt

Deep and tight (score 80/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$17,184

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$34,229 / $27,165

Imbalance3% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score80.2 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.91

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.06pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%