← Explore · Market 567690
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6.0% implied · bid 5.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (33.3%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20,212
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,667 / $632
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.56
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%