← Explore · Market 599304
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
20.7% implied · bid 20.5¢ · ask 20.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.6%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability20.6%
Bid / ask / mid20.5¢ / 20.9¢ / 20.7¢
Spread0.4¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+0.55pt
Change 7d+7.45pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,000
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,308 / $3,236
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.16
RSI (14, hourly)29.3
Realized vol 7d0.89pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 21h.
Time to resolve24d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%