← Explore · Market 599305
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
79.0% implied · bid 78.0¢ · ask 80.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 80.0¢ / 79.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-8.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,510
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,632 / $9,292
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 62 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.98
RSI (14, hourly)61.5
Realized vol 7d0.97pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 21h.
Time to resolve24d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%