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← Explore · Market 599305

Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

79.0% implied · bid 78.0¢ · ask 80.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 80.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 80.0¢ / 79.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-8.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 25% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6,510
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,632 / $9,292
Imbalance25% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.5 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 62 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.98
RSI (14, hourly)61.5
Realized vol 7d0.97pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 24d 21h.

Time to resolve24d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth