← Explore · Market 601819
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
61.5% implied · bid 61.0¢ · ask 62.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 62.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability62.0%
Bid / ask / mid61.0¢ / 62.0¢ / 61.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19,906
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$120,558 / $87,243
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.94
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.14pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 22h.
Time to resolve85d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%