← Explore · Market 601819

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

62.5% implied · bid 62.0¢ · ask 63.0¢

The market prices this at 63.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability63.0%

Bid / ask / mid62.0¢ / 63.0¢ / 62.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.6%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-2.00pt

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$27,588

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$230,242 / $81,633

Imbalance13% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.27

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.15pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 39d 23h.

Time to resolve39d 23h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%