← Explore · Market 601820
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2.9% implied · bid 2.9¢ · ask 3.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability3.0%
Bid / ask / mid2.9¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (3.4%)
Change 24h-0.30pt
Change 7d+2.40pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$61,154
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,720 / $309
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.78
RSI (14, hourly)58.3
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+0.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 22h.
Time to resolve85d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%