← Explore · Market 601825
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
8.3% implied · bid 8.1¢ · ask 8.4¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.4%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability8.4%
Bid / ask / mid8.1¢ / 8.4¢ / 8.3¢
Spread0.3¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 60/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$29,101
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19,053 / $4,745
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score60.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.42
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.07pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 22h.
Time to resolve85d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%