← Explore · Market 601825

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

2.9% implied · bid 2.9¢ · ask 3.0¢

The market prices this at 2.8%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability2.8%

Bid / ask / mid2.9¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.9¢

Spread0.1¢ (3.4%)

Change 24h-1.25pt

Change 7d-1.95pt

Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$207,411

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,336 / $12,120

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score58.2 / 100

RSI 28 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.20

RSI (14, hourly)28.0

Realized vol 7d0.16pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 39d 23h.

Time to resolve39d 23h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%